Preface to the First Edition.

Acknowledgments.

1. Epidemiology Past and Present.

1.1 Epidemiology, Public Health, and Health.

1.2 Uses of Epidemiology.

1.3 Epidemiologic Transition.

1.4 Selected Historical Figures and Events.

2. Causal Concepts.

2.1 Natural History of Disease.

2.2 Spectrum of Disease and “the Iceberg”.

2.3 Causal Concepts.

2.4 Epidemiologic Variables.

3. The Infectious Disease Process.

3.1 The Infectious Disease Process.

3.2 Herd Immunity.

4. Screening for Disease.

4.1 Introduction.

4.2 Reproducibility.

4.3 Validity.

4.4 Relation Between Prevalence of Disease and Predictive Value of a Test.

4.5 Selecting a Cutoff for Positive and Negative Test Results.

4.6 Summary.

Chapter Addendum (Case Study): Screening for Antibodies to the Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

5. Case Definitions and Disease Classification.

5.1 Case Defin itions.

5.2 International Classification of Disease.

5.3 Artifactual Fluctuations in Reported Rates.

5.4 Summary.

6. Incidence and Prevalence.

6.1 Background.

6.2 Incidence Proportion (Risk, Cumulative Incidence).

6.3 Incidence Rate (Incidence Density).

6.4 Prevalence.

7. Rate Adjustment.

7.1 Introduction.

7.2 Direct Adjustment.

7.3 Indirect Adjustment.

7.4 Adjustment for Multiple Factors.

7.5 Summary.

8. Measures of Association and Potential Impact.

8.1 Introduction.

8.2 Absolute Measures of Association.

8.3 Relative Measures of Association.

8.4 Measures of Potential Impact.

9. Types of Epidemiologic Studies.

9.1 Stages of Study and Hypothesis Statement.

9.2 Taxonomy of Study Design.

10. Experimental Study Designs.

10.1 Introduction.

10.2 Selected Concepts.

10.3 Clinical Trials as a Point of Reference.

11. Observational Study Designs.

11.1 Introduction.

11.2 Aggregate-Level (Ecological) Studies.

11.3 Cross-Sectional Studies.

11.4 Cohort Studies.

11.5 Case–Control Studies.

11.6 Comparison of Randomized Trials, Cohort Studies, and Case–Control Studies.

12. Error in Epidemiologic Research.

12.1 Introduction.

12.2 Random Error.

12.3 Systematic Error.

13. Confidence Intervals and p Values.

13.1 Introduction.

13.2 Confidence Intervals.

13.3 p Values.

13.4 Minimum Bayes Factors.

14. Mantel–Haenszel Methods.

14.1 Ways to Prevent Confounding.

14.2 Simpson’s Paradox.

14.3 Mantel–Haenszel Methods for Risk Ratios.

14.4 Mantel–Haenszel Methods for Other Measures of Association.

15. Statistical Interaction.

15.1 Two Types of Interaction.

15.2 Chi-Square Test for Statistical Interaction.

15.3 Strategy for Stratified Analysis.

16. From Association to Causation.

16.1 Introduction.

16.2 Report of the Advisory Committee to the U.S. Surgeon General, 1964.

16.3 Hill’s Framework.

17. Survival Analysis.

17.1 Introduction.

17.2 Stratifying Rates by Follow-up Time.

17.3 Actuarial Method of Survival Analysis.

17.4 Kaplan–Meier Method of Survival Analysis.

17.5 Comparing the Survival Experience of Two Groups.

18. Current Life Tables.

18.1 Introduction.

18.2 Complete Life Table.

18.3 Abridged Life Table.

19. Random Distribution of Cases in Time and Space.

19.1 Introduction.

19.2 The Poisson Distribution.

19.3 Goodness of Fit of the Poisson Distribution.

19.4 Summary.

20. Outbreak Investigation.

20.1 Background.

20.2 Investigatory Steps.

Chapter Addendum 1 (Case Study): Drug–Disease Outbreak.

Chapter Addendum 2 (Case Study): Food-Borne Outbreak in Rhynedale, California.

Appendix 1. 95% Confidence Limits for Poisson Counts.

Appendix 2. Tail Areas in the Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Double There Areas for Two-Sided p Values.

Appendix 3. Right-Tail Areas in Chi-Square Distributions.

Appendix 4. Case Study—Cigarette Smoking and Lung Cancer.

Appendix 5. Case Study—Tampons and Toxic Shock Syndrome.